Add to preferred sourcesCommentsNewsopinionLaura McAllister12:10, 24 Oct 2026Updated 12:16, 24 Oct 2026View 6 ImagesUEFA Vice President, academic and columnist Laura McAllister

May 7th feels like a very long time ago now. All predictions were that this would be the most important/interesting/historic Senedd election since the advent of devolution.

A low bar admittedly, given there’s been precious little jeopardy in every previous election. We’ve always pretty much known the winning party beforehand; it’s been more about whether Labour can win a majority or with whom they will strike a deal to govern.

Anyway, Senedd 26 lived up to expectations, a once-in-a-century election result and mostly matched predictions. Welsh voters dumped Labour for the first time in even Sir David Attenborough's memory. Both ‘big’ parties turned out to be - well, not so big after all.

Even combined, Labour and the Conservatives collected just under a quarter of all votes cast (another record low). The Lib Dems showed their fossil-like qualities with the return (once again) of Jane Dodds as their sole representative. She has this week decided enough is enough and will stand down as Welsh Lib Dem leader

The Greens made the breakthrough they had hoped for with two MSs, not quite what the outlier poll at the start of the year had suggested, but a presence is a presence at the end of the day and two is far better than one (ask Jane Dodds). And Reform’s success on the right eclipsed every Conservative result in modern electoral history.

There's plenty we could talk about here, but I want to focus on Labour as, despite very real and different challenges for all the parties and positive mood music from over the border, Welsh Labour faces the biggest problems.

The Senedd election was inarguably an unmitigated and entirely predictable disaster for Labour. Well before the election, there was talk of an existential crisis for Labour, a changing of the guard moment, much like 1922 for the Liberals.

The Senedd results were definitely at the worst end of predictions and every bit as disastrous. Plaid polled over three times as many votes as Labour did, leaving Wales's hegemonic party with just 11% of the popular vote - 25 percentage points down from the 2021 election and 26 points down from Labour’s landslide in the UK General Election less than two years previously.

A return of nine MSs out of 96, down from 29 in the smaller, 60-seat Senedd was a disaster. Then, to top it off, its beleaguered leader and First Minister unceremoniously lost her seat, the first time that’s happened to any head of government in Britain.

View 6 ImagesEluned Morgan failed to be re-elected in the Senedd Election(Image: Getty Images)

Nothing defines a party more than how it responds to staring extinction in the face. Denial is a natural phase in the stages of grief but the demands of electoral cycles means time waits for no one.

Nearly six months have passed and, unless it’s been extremely well camouflaged, there appears to have been little serious analysis of what went wrong for Labour.

The only place that can be found is from the more thoughtful and challenging former Labour MSs who stood down or lost their seats in May. There’s a certain irony in that.

Welsh Labour’s lack of urgency in its response is utterly perplexing. One would think that the depth and scale of Labour’s defeat would be enough to trigger a proper rethink of its identity and profile, its appeal and, most significantly, some strategies for rehabilitation.